SPY Golden Cross
A long-only trend strategy that holds the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) whenever the 50-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average — the classic golden cross — and steps aside on the death cross.
Last updated June 18, 2026
The idea
The SPY Golden Cross is one of the most widely watched trend signals in markets. It keeps you invested in the broad US equity market during sustained uptrends and moves you to cash during major downtrends, aiming to sidestep the worst of bear markets.
How it works
- Entry (golden cross) — go long SPY when the 50-day SMA closes above the 200-day SMA.
- Exit (death cross) — close the position when the 50-day SMA closes below the 200-day SMA, holding cash until the next golden cross.
Why it works
Long moving-average crossovers are slow by design. They generate few signals and will not catch tops or bottoms, but they keep you aligned with the dominant trend and out of prolonged drawdowns — a favourable trade-off for long-term investors who want to reduce time spent in deep bear markets.
Parameters to tune
| Parameter | Default | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Fast SMA | 50 | Shorter reacts faster, more whipsaws |
| Slow SMA | 200 | The long-term trend anchor |
Next steps
Backtest this across decades of SPY history in Horizon, compare the equity curve and drawdown to buy-and-hold, then deploy it as an automated strategy.
