Producer Price Index releases are usually treated as one type of macro event.
The data suggests that is too simplistic.
What matters is whether PPI arrives before or after CPI in the monthly inflation calendar.
Across 94 PPI releases from May 2018 through August 2026, the market reaction changed materially depending on that sequence.
PPI before CPI was noisy
There were 22 releases where PPI arrived before CPI.
In those cases, half of the initial five-minute SPY moves had fully reversed within 30 minutes.
A 50% reversal rate is effectively noise.
The first move carried very little directional information.
That makes sense.
Without the CPI print already in the market, traders are still trying to work out how much weight the PPI surprise deserves.
PPI after CPI behaved differently
There were 72 releases where CPI had already been published.
In that group, 72.2% of the initial five-minute directional moves were still holding through the first hour.
Only 27.8% reversed.
That is a substantial difference from the PPI-first sample.
The release appears to behave more like confirmation once the broader inflation picture is already established.
Why sequence can matter
Macro releases do not arrive in isolation.
When CPI has already set the inflation narrative for the month, PPI can reinforce or challenge an existing view.
That gives traders a stronger reference point.
When PPI comes first, the market is still waiting for the more important consumer inflation number.
The same data point therefore enters a very different information environment.
The useful takeaway
PPI should not be treated as one uniform event.
Across this sample, release order changed the short-term market behaviour dramatically.
PPI-first events were close to a coin flip.
PPI-second events showed much stronger directional persistence.
The headline matters.
The calendar sequence appears to matter more.
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